2018 annual strategy report of the electronics industry: optimistic about opportunities such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence

The electronics industry has maintained a high outlook for 17 years, and is optimistic about opportunities such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence in 18 years

Looking back on 2017, the overall market performance of the electronic sector was good, and it maintained a high outlook driven by new technologies, industry recovery and other factors. The sector index outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 12%, better than the overall market performance. Looking forward to 2018, we believe that semiconductors are still at a good investment point and have medium - and long-term investment opportunities. In addition, we are optimistic about AI chips. The downstream scenarios based on AI chips, including security, consumer electronics and automatic driving, have good investment opportunities. Finally, we believe that automotive electronics is expected to take over 3C products and become the next important force to promote the development of the electronics industry.

The trend of semiconductor localization is irresistible

Gartner's forecast shows that the global semiconductor industry investment will continue to grow from 2017 to 2019, and the high prosperity of the semiconductor industry is expected to continue. In the future, the downstream demand driving force of semiconductors will shift from 3C products to automotive electronics, Internet of things, etc. At the same time, China's self-sufficiency rate of integrated circuits is only 30%, and the import volume is high. At present, there is a strong demand for localization of integrated circuits, and there is a large space for import substitution. Under the background of the national policy of vigorously supporting the development of the integrated circuit industry and the high prosperity of the global semiconductor industry, there will be long-term development opportunities in the field of independent R & D, design and package testing of domestic chips.

Artificial intelligence creates the future

Artificial intelligence was written into the report of the 19th National Congress for the first time, showing its important position in the national strategy. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology represented by alphago and the increasingly fierce competition for artificial intelligence talents, all of them have confirmed the view that "the past five years have been the Internet era, and the next 10 years will enter the artificial intelligence era". At the same time, global technology giants are stepping up the layout of AI chips, hoping to walk in the forefront of the era of technological change. We believe that we can select individual stocks from the security, automatic driving and other fields downstream of the AI chip industry.

Automotive electronics set off a new wave

The icinsights report predicts that the average annual growth rate of automotive semiconductors from 2015 to 2020 will be 4.9%, ranking the first in all industries. There are two main factors for the rapid development of automotive electronics: the rapid growth of the overall sales volume of automobiles and the improvement of the level of scientific and electronic technology of bicycles. And new energy vehicles with a higher degree of electronization will further drive the demand for automotive electronics. We expect that automotive electronics will become the next important force to promote the development of the electronics industry. We suggest that we focus on companies with integrated global high-quality auto parts assets.

Relevant listed companies

It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in various sub sectors and companies that have acquired high-quality overseas assets. The relevant targets include: Changdian Technology (leading integrated circuit sealing test), San'an Optoelectronics (leading compound semiconductor), Fuhan micro (leading domestic video monitoring chip designer), Zhongke Shuguang (leading domestic HPC, strategic cooperation with Cambrian), and Junsheng Electronics (the second largest passive safety supplier of automobiles in the world).

Risk warning: the prosperity of the semiconductor industry is not as expected; The impact of technological innovation on the traditional industrial pattern.